Thursday, February 21, 2008

Stagflation and Recession, Neither a Good Day

Ooh, the stagflation concept has come up now, remember the late 70's or early 80's? No, you missed some bad times. The problem is it's hard to keep up with inflation now.

Last year 3 month LIBOR was at 5.36%, and the CPI from Jan 2007 to Jan 2008 was high at 4.3%, but you could still make money. Now with inflation looking like it will be at the same rate, and LIBOR at 3.09%, the investor is in a negative situation.

It is helpful for the overall economy that the Fed has the reduced the interest rates, but for investors and buyers of small company products, they have less money. A negative real interest rate is bad for the investor.

I would be worried, very worried now, if I had products or solutions to sell, look for a period of suffering - if you can keep raising prices to keep up with inflation it won't be so bad - but more likely the demand curve will fall off and we head for something worse, a recession.

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