Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Stimulate Demand and Supply will Follow

Everyone wants their piece of the pie, the pie being the $787 billion stimulus plan. But the cries from small business for more of the pie have gone on deaf ears, according to their mouthpieces at the NFIB and SBEC.

Of course direct assistance is preferable, but haven't we finally gotten past the days of trickle-down Reganomics? Remember the Lafer curve? Is a payroll tax holiday really an effective stimulus? I think not, it will surely keep the lights on a bit longer for struggling small businesses. But isn't the free market supposed to weed out the week suppliers?

With consumers representing 2/3's of economic demand in the economy, should not the biggest stimulus go that group. And in the bill it does, the biggest single item ($116 billion) is for a tax cut for individuals. People are not spending as much as they were, and won't until they feel better about the economy and their prospects. The direct stimulus to consumers will temporarily prop-up their spending until the job engine restarts. This is what the small business community needs, even if they can't see it right now. Fix the demand side and supply will follow, Economics 101.