The Rating Agencies Blow, but We Knew that Already

As Gretchen Morgenson points out in her recent Fair Game column, the overseers are all complicit for the current economic mess. Put in this category the regulators (think SEC, the Fed, etc.), the Boards of these failed financial companies (who didn't understand the products they were pedaling), and the rating agencies. Today lets look at the latter and figure out why anyone cared about their ratings anyway.

Rating agencies rate debt issues. They analyze the risks and assign a grade representing your likelihood of getting your principal and interest back in full. Banks, as lenders and holders of debt make the same calculations when deciding who to lend money. Now, other than the big real estate debacle back in the 80's, lenders to companies have not had the meltdown like now. Why is that? I believe it's because they use more sophisticated devices than the rating agencies. How could this be? It's because they consider the signals from the public equity markets as well as balance sheet analysis.

When I was as banker, we used some type of Z score for our public company relationships. It would measure equity volatility of the target creditor. If the entity's stock was tanking or simply volatile, or low compared to it's competitors, we would stay away from any type of credit exposure, including swaps of any kind. As we have seen with AIG and Lehman Bros, the debt is as exposed as the equity when things go bad.

Lesson, not all is what it seems, only the Gov't is a AAA+ credit because it can tax and print money, so if you want safe try Treasuries, otherwise consider the equity risk of a company who's debt you are investing in, if you want to sleep more soundly.

Back in the Saddle

I haven't had much to add lately - all that is going on with the Fed, the economy, the banks, whew!!! Where to turn for good news? Look to the optimists as described here by the NYTimes on Sunday. A few of them even sound rational. Maybe it's not that bad on Main street. Of course when the ETF that follows the US Dow financial sector is down from 120 a year ago in half to $60 currently, portfolio's are hurting. It must be hurting Main Street in their retirement funds. Or maybe they just invested in Gold, looks good now but long term stocks are the best option - see below...

So Sad

The news has been unusually depressing since Labor Day, so much so that it's been hard to write anything worth while for small companies. But no doubt, Wall Street is hurting more than Main Street. Keep the faith.

You are probably better off than the big boys out there. But if you needed a cash infusion in this time of low rates, would you pay 17% interest? That is Goldman Sacks agreed to if you read the wonderful blog The Big Picture I follow regularly. It must be scary out there for the big boys who are used to reaming money from the little guys. What comes around, goes around.

In a longer look, could this be the end of dollar hegemony? Could this be the end of American economic leadership? For you folks in the manufacturing world, it sure has seemed so over the past 10 years. If the high-value-add manufacturing sector, services sector and new economy companies don't win us back some power then we maybe in a slow decline, time will tell.